International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) 5 monthly market analysis monthly analysis, Cotlook A index from August 2009 to March 2010 and early in April continued to rise, from 64 cents per pound to the U.S. rose to 84-87 per pound points. Production decline and increase the gap between consumption recovery is the main reason leading to significant growth. Although the receipt of 2008 / / 2009 the global financial and economic crisis, global cotton mill consumption declined sharply, but the global cotton mill use is expected to rebound faster than and more intense. The global cotton production in the third quarter continued to decline. Therefore, the global cotton stocks are projected at the end of July 2010 will be reduced by 18% to 10.4 million tons, the lowest level in 6 years.

     Government of India announced the suspension of cotton exports registered and requested cotton exports have been registered but not yet shipped, will force a re-audit to confirm the monthly limit. Cause Cotlook A index by the end of April increased by more than 90 cents per pound. India is the second largest cotton exporter. August 2009 to March 2010, the volume of more than 1.2 million tons.

    In the high cotton prices, driven, global cotton production is expected to grow 13% in November 2010 to reach 24.8 million tons. Continuous improvement by the global economic growth driven by the high cotton prices and restrictions on the use of global cotton long-expected 2% in 2010/11 to continue to rise, reaching 24.8 million tons. Global cotton trade is projected to grow to 7.7 million tons continued. World cotton ending stocks are projected to remain stable in 2010/11.

    According to the 2009/10 price forecast of 77 cents per pound, ICAC price model forecasts 2010/11Cotlook A quarter of 85 cents per pound average. 95% confidence interval extended to 70 to 100 cents per pound. This prediction means that the forecast for 2009/10 will be on 10% growth. However, the operation to be careful, as all commodity markets are very uncertain. (China Cotton Economic Information System)


                Global cotton supply

              Unit: tons cents / lb

               2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Yield          2341      2210      2480

Usage        2341      2440      2480

Exports       654        750        770

Ending stocks 127310401050

Cotlook A Index 61.2 77.0 85.0